Before starting, I would like to stress that I am not, nor will ever be, a supporter for Hezbollah or any other political party in Lebanon. I am just a political analyst and writer and I am just analyzing the situation in Lebanon without being affected by any camp.
1- I do not believe that Hezbollah is the murderer of Rafiq al-Hariri and I doubt the legitimacy of the international tribunal, the judges, the investigators, and the evidence in Hariri’s assassination. This is Due to many reasons:
a. There are the false witnesses’ files that the tribunal refuses to discuss as well as refuses to consider knowing that the first results of the investigation were built on it.
b. The tribunal is only showing few circumstantial evidence. If they were to be presented in any court in the United States, the case would be dismissed at once and not hold trail. The tribunal also hides the evidence that its recent subpoena was based on (to protect the soundness of the investigation as they claimed). How are the accused supposed to defend themselves then???????? Is that a rational thing??????? Why do they hide it if they are confident of their accusations and procedures?????? How can there be a just trail if the accused cannot defend himself against the prosecutors’ evidence????? This procedure is unacceptable by any court of law in the whole world.
c. The tribunal is oriented towards one idea and that is the Hezb, and refuses to consider other evidence and scenarios. The evidence that Hezbollah provided were never investigated by the tribunal. such as the Israeli air surveillance of Hariri’s movements in the months before his assassination, the activities of the Israeli intelligence and the Lebanese traitors also in the months before and after his assassination, the suspicious and outrageous activities of the investigators in Lebanon, the transportation of the 97 computers that belonged to the investigation committee through Israel instead of Beirut airport, and many more evidence the Hezb talked about.
d. The tribunal’s investigators gathered personal, civil, demographic, topographic, communication, and criminal information about ALL Lebanese people such as fingerprints, blood type, DNA, phone numbers, houses, family ties and members, passports, and so on and so forth. This information, by the way, was on the computers that were transported through Israel. Can you or anyone tell me WHY the tribunal needed this information about ALL THE LEBANSES??????? …Are all Lebanese accused of Hariri’s assassination? Is there any suspension that ALL Lebanese are involved????.... Shouldn’t acquiring such information be limited to individuals related to the assassinations (suspects or people involved directly or indirectly)?????......
This tribunal is politicized 100%. At first, Syria was accused and forced to get out of Lebanon (not that any Lebanese objected it). Then, and after the July 2006 war, the Hezb became suddenly the murderer and its accused members happened to be among its elite fighters. Isn’t that suspicious?????????????????????
2- Hariri’s son Saad cares less about finding his father’s murderer. In fact, no one (in 14 March camp or the international society) wants to find Hariri’s real murderer. All of them want to invest this incident politically as much as possible. It is like having our own Holocaust. Most politicians who visited Lebanon (depending on their ranks and on the side they support) put flowers on the grave of Hariri in downtown Beirut, Hilary Clinton did. Moreover, whenever someone dares to contradict and oppose 14 March camp, they immediately provoke the memory of Hariri. Hariri’s son Saad was prepared to sell his dad’s tribunal in order to stay a Prime Minister and that is documented and signed by him.
3- I stress that the balance of terror between Israel and Hezbollah is the most crucial cause preventing the outbreak of war. This time, Hezbollah missiles will reach deep inside the Israeli state. The Targets (as the Hezb declared many times) this time are civilian, military, commercial and many other vital centers. The Israelis themselves acknowledge this fact and anyone can review the Israeli newspapers to check this. On the other side, Israel will destroy Lebanon with its advance weapons (that is that).
The balance of terror then is what makes both sides think twice before initiating any act of aggression. Exchanging threats is the only political outlet available at present. In light of this fact, you might understand the reasons behind accusing the Hezb of Hariri’s murder. When the Israeli government could not take it down or even weaken it in 2006 war, the Israelis realized that direct confrontations between organized armed forces and an armed militia is worthless. Thus, the alternative was to weaken the home front that Hezb relied on for support, to force the Lebanese themselves to disarm Hezbollah.
4- No one can disarm the Lebanese, the same as no one can disarm the rednecks in the US. The Lebanese sects were always armed long before the civil war not because they wanted to protect a farm or a wealth, but because each was, is, and will always be ready to protect its existence in Lebanon.
5- One needs to understand that Lebanon is not a state in the sociopolitical meaning of the word. It never had the components of a state. To stay united, it always needed an outside interference especially when we consider its geopolitical importance. Therefore, many regional and international powers are maintaining spheres of influence on Lebanese territories through each sect. The Lebanese used to joke about it saying that if an earthquake occurred in Brazil we will feel the aftershock in Lebanon.
When talking about Lebanon, we must not consider questions like: what ought to be??... what is moral and immoral??? …What is rational and irrational???... And what is normal and abnormal???... The Lebanese politics, economics, society and mentality are always under irrational and abnormal circumstances. Thus, to understand Lebanon we must only think of power politics.