Crisis in the
Making
Since 2006, Iran's nuclear activities expanded
despite the four sets of UN sanctions imposed because of its refusal to suspend
uranium enrichment activities and accept the inspection of the UN inspectors
and investigators.
During the past few days, Iran threatened to prevent the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz in the case of foreign sanctions on oil exports due to its nuclear program. Tensions between Iran and the West escalated during the last month when the International Agency for Atomic Energy of the United Nations issued a report accusing Tehran of designing a nuclear bomb.
Iran denies this and says it is only working hard to achieve nuclear capability for peaceful purposes. Three weeks ago, the EU foreign ministers decided to tighten sanctions on Iran. They talked about the possibility of imposing an embargo on Iranian oil exports to force it to halt its nuclear activities that might lead to building nuclear weapons. This prompted Iranian officials[1] to warn that Iran will not allow the passage of one drop of oil through the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions are imposed.
In turn, the U.S. State Department declared that the United States will ensure the free flow of oil.
The ministry spokesman Mark Toner noted that Iran’s threats are just another attempt to divert attention from the real issue, which is the continuation of non-respect of international nuclear obligations.
During the past few days, Iran threatened to prevent the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz in the case of foreign sanctions on oil exports due to its nuclear program. Tensions between Iran and the West escalated during the last month when the International Agency for Atomic Energy of the United Nations issued a report accusing Tehran of designing a nuclear bomb.
Iran denies this and says it is only working hard to achieve nuclear capability for peaceful purposes. Three weeks ago, the EU foreign ministers decided to tighten sanctions on Iran. They talked about the possibility of imposing an embargo on Iranian oil exports to force it to halt its nuclear activities that might lead to building nuclear weapons. This prompted Iranian officials[1] to warn that Iran will not allow the passage of one drop of oil through the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions are imposed.
In turn, the U.S. State Department declared that the United States will ensure the free flow of oil.
The ministry spokesman Mark Toner noted that Iran’s threats are just another attempt to divert attention from the real issue, which is the continuation of non-respect of international nuclear obligations.
Beginning on Saturday, the Iranian navy proceeded with
ten days exercises in the Strait of Hormuz and the adjacent waterways to show
off its military force. Information from Iran also suggested that Iran is
considering the possibility to hit Israel and U.S. interests in the Gulf in
response to any military strike aimed at its nuclear facilities, an option of
last resort as hinted by Washington and the Israeli state.
The Iranians claim that they chose the Strait
of Hormuz to hold naval exercise because the strait is the entrance to the
Persian Gulf and there are more than 15 million barrels of oil pass daily through
the strait, therefore ensuring security in the Strait of Hormuz is the
important to Iran and all countries of the region and the global system. It
should be noted that 40 per cent of the world's oil transported by sea crosses
the Strait of Hormuz, which is a narrow corridor that does not exceed 50 km in
width 60 meters in depth.
They explain that the timing of the exercises has nothing
to do with the current events in the region; the Iranian navy exercises, in
part, are held within the framework of periodic military training of the
Iranian armed forces. The current Iranian activity is covering a wider area
than before, which reflects the size of Iran's power in weapon proliferation.
In their maneuvers, Iranians used new weapons and covered a large area of the
Iranian coast, which indicates that there is coordination between submarines
and other naval and air pieces that provide coverage of any real operations.
Iranians also claim that the aim of these exercises is to
mitigate any potential threat to Iran and not to attack anyone.
Sources in the Gulf mentioned that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are prepared to compensate for Iranian oil in the case of implementing sanctions to stop Iran's oil exports to Europe. In response to those claims, the Iranian Oil Minister Rustam Ghasemi said that Saudi Arabia has promised not to replace Iranian oil in the case of the imposition of sanctions.
The delegations in the Gulf "OPEC" believe that the Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz hurt Iran, just like the major producing countries, which also used the most important shipping lane for oil exports in the world.
Sources in the Gulf mentioned that Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are prepared to compensate for Iranian oil in the case of implementing sanctions to stop Iran's oil exports to Europe. In response to those claims, the Iranian Oil Minister Rustam Ghasemi said that Saudi Arabia has promised not to replace Iranian oil in the case of the imposition of sanctions.
The delegations in the Gulf "OPEC" believe that the Iranian threat to close the Strait of Hormuz hurt Iran, just like the major producing countries, which also used the most important shipping lane for oil exports in the world.
On Thursday, a U.S. naval strike force led by
aircraft carrier "John Stennis," accompanied by a group of warships
entered the Iranian Navy exercises zone in the Strait of Hormuz.
The aircraft carrier entered the strait after the leadership of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, stationed in the Persian Gulf, announced that would it will not allow Tehran to halt the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The leadership of the Fifth Fleet said: "Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated"[2]. The U.S. naval forces announced that they will keep active presence in the region in order to impede or respond to destabilizing actions.
The aircraft carrier entered the strait after the leadership of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, stationed in the Persian Gulf, announced that would it will not allow Tehran to halt the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The leadership of the Fifth Fleet said: "Anyone who threatens to disrupt freedom of navigation in an international strait is clearly outside the community of nations; any disruption will not be tolerated"[2]. The U.S. naval forces announced that they will keep active presence in the region in order to impede or respond to destabilizing actions.
On the Iranian side, the official spokesman for the
Iranian fleet Mahmoud Moussavi said on Thursday that the Iranian Navy is ready
to resist foreign military navy pieces that try to access the exercises zone.
Dose Iran has the capability to close Hormuz
Strait?
There is no
doubt that Iran’s maneuver and threats have raised many questions about
Tehran's real ability close to the Strait at all costs, especially after releasing
a report by the security services and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard,
entitled: ‘How to close the Strait of Hormuz’.
Needless to say that Iran conducted naval maneuvers constantly, land and air, during which it tested new weapons, produced locally, including fighter jets and exploration planes, submarines and warships, tanks and radars, and missiles and smart bombs.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Iran proceeded to buy many elements of nuclear system and other weaponry starting with missiles and information technology. No one can confirm or deny whether Iran has been able to obtain nuclear warheads from the former USSR republics. Iran contacted hundreds of atomic scientists from these republics –Islamic ones as well as Ukraine- and spent hundreds of millions to buy everything that can be purchased from the advanced military hardware. Currently, Iran has an arsenal of missiles with a range above the Mediterranean like a rocket (Badr - 110) and Shehab-4 missile with a range 2500-4500 km and the Shahab-5, which has a range of 6,000 kilometers and Shahab-6 intercontinental where the range goes up to 10000 km, and the missile "Sejeel", the latest Iranian missile system, as well as a group of medium-range missiles with ranges between 1000 - 3000 km
Iran has different groups of air defense systems -Methaq 2 and Methaq 1- which are developed from the Chinese systems of "Q1 Vanguard". Iran also has (SAM-7 Gabriel) system and (Tor M-1) which are Russia systems to protect nuclear facilities from the risk of attacks.
What worries the United States and Israel the most is the possibility that Iran has purchased the missiles X-55 that are fitted with nuclear warheads from Ukraine in the era of President Viktor Yushchenko. The answer to this question will inevitably lead to the re-evaluation of the strategic position of the United States and Israel.
Needless to say that Iran conducted naval maneuvers constantly, land and air, during which it tested new weapons, produced locally, including fighter jets and exploration planes, submarines and warships, tanks and radars, and missiles and smart bombs.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Iran proceeded to buy many elements of nuclear system and other weaponry starting with missiles and information technology. No one can confirm or deny whether Iran has been able to obtain nuclear warheads from the former USSR republics. Iran contacted hundreds of atomic scientists from these republics –Islamic ones as well as Ukraine- and spent hundreds of millions to buy everything that can be purchased from the advanced military hardware. Currently, Iran has an arsenal of missiles with a range above the Mediterranean like a rocket (Badr - 110) and Shehab-4 missile with a range 2500-4500 km and the Shahab-5, which has a range of 6,000 kilometers and Shahab-6 intercontinental where the range goes up to 10000 km, and the missile "Sejeel", the latest Iranian missile system, as well as a group of medium-range missiles with ranges between 1000 - 3000 km
Iran has different groups of air defense systems -Methaq 2 and Methaq 1- which are developed from the Chinese systems of "Q1 Vanguard". Iran also has (SAM-7 Gabriel) system and (Tor M-1) which are Russia systems to protect nuclear facilities from the risk of attacks.
What worries the United States and Israel the most is the possibility that Iran has purchased the missiles X-55 that are fitted with nuclear warheads from Ukraine in the era of President Viktor Yushchenko. The answer to this question will inevitably lead to the re-evaluation of the strategic position of the United States and Israel.
To answer the question on the possibility of Iran closing
the Strait of Hormuz, if we go back to Iran-Iraq war, we find that Iran has not
closed the Straits of Hormuz though it can militarily. Iran can lay mines in
the paths of ships leading to impede traffic in the strait, and there are
hundreds of tools and techniques that can disrupt traffic in the strait, but
the most important question is whether Iran wants to do so??? Especially since
the majority of Iran's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
To Do It or Not to Do It, That is the Question??
Threatened to be attacked at any time, Iran will sooner
or later stop traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This fact prompted the Arab
countries to think seriously about finding alternative paths to oil exports.
Any Iranian decision to close Hormuz Strait will force the entire world and
specifically the United States to go to the UN Security Council in order to
take appropriate steps including military solutions to open the strait
Iran may see itself in an advance position in
the region that might permit it to escalate the tension with the United States
to show that any threat to its vital interests would threaten the economic
interests of the West as well. Iranian threats led to the rise in the price of
Brent crude oil last week before falling back to previous levels later on. This
will not have good effect on the global economy especially since the United
States and the Western world as a whole is still suffering in the shadow of the
financial and economic crisis. Yet, it seems the West is serious in imposing
more sanctions on Iran and to put pressure on Tehran, as they stated that they
will continue to impose sanctions even if Iran has threatened to close the
Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the escalation in fierce statements
between the two sides, currently the United States does not want to be involved
in a military confrontation with Iran especially that it has not yet exhausted
all the options, the global economy is still fragile, and the United States has
not yet healed all (physical and moral) wounds of the war in Iraq on the eve of
completing its withdrawal from Iraq.
Iran in turn is also not willing to engage in a major war
with the West, knowing that it will come out of it destroyed without being able
to recover. Consequently, this loss might destabilize the regime and even cause
it to fall, especially since the domestic situation is witnessing a new wave of
unrest and tension under sanctions and the approaching date for legislative
elections to be held in March next year. Iranians believe that as long as Iran
have influence and presence in the region, for example, in Lebanon through
Hezbollah, and its role in Syria through its support of the system, and its
intervention to resolve the latest crisis in Iraq, it could affect the
political outcomes without resorting military provocations that might escalate
out of control and lead to violent confrontation, loss of its capabilities, and
an unfavorable shift in the regional balance of power.
So what is Iran’s goal of from escalating its rhetoric
and defiance of the West? And is it really serious in its threats and able to
engage in even a limited military confrontation that could turn into a
devastating war with the great power that possesses an arsenal of conventional
and nonconventional weapons? This is unlikely at present at least.
It seems that Iran’s threats and maneuvers are related to its desire to show that it holds many files in the region –starting with Iraq and not necessarily ending in Lebanon-. Iran wants to be acknowledged as a regional power more than it wants to close Hormuz strait. Iran is aware of the seriousness of going to war against the United States, therefore Iran would not risk all the gains of previous years, on the contrary it will use its control over the Strait of Hormuz as a leverage to gain time in the hope of achieving its dream of greater access to nuclear power.
It seems that Iran’s threats and maneuvers are related to its desire to show that it holds many files in the region –starting with Iraq and not necessarily ending in Lebanon-. Iran wants to be acknowledged as a regional power more than it wants to close Hormuz strait. Iran is aware of the seriousness of going to war against the United States, therefore Iran would not risk all the gains of previous years, on the contrary it will use its control over the Strait of Hormuz as a leverage to gain time in the hope of achieving its dream of greater access to nuclear power.
With the increasing political pressure and economic
sanctions, Tehran knows that it is not a good time to fight especially a strong
enemy such as the United States. Also, it is not good for the West if Iran
continues its nuclear activities in defiance of sanctions as stated in the
words of President Ahmadinejad and become closer to making a nuclear bomb. But
most importantly, it is not a good time for the United States to back down. In
the shadow of the reduced U.S. influence due to its withdrawal from Iraq, its
failure in containing Hezbollah in Lebanon, its slow responds to the Arab
Spring, its stumbling in Syria, and the reduced U.S. interest in the region,
Iran is waiting to take advantage of this situation and fill the gap in order
to prove to the Middle East countries that it is the regional super power.
The United States must not yield to the Iranian threats
because it will further reduce its influence in the Middle East and show the
U.S as weak and incapable of protecting its interests or its allies while
confirming the position of Iran as a rising power in the region. But direct
confrontations are not the solution either. Regional war in the current
economic and political circumstances of the Middle East and the whole world in
general will have devastating effect on all parties.
Therefore, it is necessary for all countries affected by
closing the Strait to participate in the action against Iran. There is no room
for unilateral role in this crisis especially that the United States should not
bear the costs alone –not economically or physically-. While letting the United
States maintain military deterrence in the Gulf, other countries should engage
in diplomatic negotiations with Iran to force it to back down. Not interfering
directly in negotiations with Iran will help the United States save what is
left of its influence in the region and keep Iran’s fears of its military power?
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